PIERRE WOODMAN wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:22 pm
Les états-unis et l'Allemagne viennent encore d'investir plusieurs milliards dans cette guerre !!!
A croire qu'ils rêvent d'une 3ème guerre mondiale avant l'investiture de Trump ... et évidemment Bruxelles est solidaire.
PW
World War III is already underway!
And in my opinion, you're getting your hopes up for Trump for nothing.
I take it we're not going to hear your plans for a peace agreement.
Well, I'll have to do it alone, as usual.
Let's try to break it down point by point.
The point is that there are many nuances to the potential prospect of peace agreements.
1). Zelensky's legal illegitimacy!
He is now legally (under the Constitution of Ukraine) an illegitimate President of Ukraine. His term of office expired long ago, and he, according to the Constitution of Ukraine, should have transferred his powers to the head of the Parliament of Ukraine, until the next elections. And, no matter how the “West” does not recognize him as the president of Ukraine, nevertheless his legal illegitimacy can create a lot of potential problems when concluding any agreements, signing documents, etc. with him.
Let's say Zelensky signed a document, where some agreements are stipulated. And, imagine a hypothetical situation in the future, that potentially, any of the parties can take advantage of the fact that the agreement was signed by an illegitimate president, and on this basis, recognize this agreement (deal) as legally null and void. This can be used both by the U.S. (NATO) and revise the agreements, and Russia!!!
Here is the problem.
I can only speak for myself (my opinion), but I think that on the part of Russia, no one will sign anything with Zelensky! I think Trump realizes this, or maybe he doesn't.
2). Trump.
It's natural to say that Trump's campaign chatter that, once officially in power, he will “solve” the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours doesn't even deserve serious attention and discussion. He won't do anything that quickly. Everything will depend on what items of the plan Trump will propose. But I am inclined to be extremely skeptical. And I'll explain why.
First of all. Previously, there have been various deals, treaties, agreements, etc. between Russia and the “West”. How many “Minsk agreements” were there? Nothing has been fulfilled, so, initially, the Russian side will look at all the proposals of the “West”, except for the surrender of Ukraine, with great wariness.
Secondly. My personal opinion is that Trump has agreed with Biden that the latter will organize a serious escalation, so that Trump, when he officially comes to power, will have (in his opinion) trump cards on his hands, to “trade” with Russia from a position of strength, and act as a kind of “peacemaker”. After all, this is Trump's characteristic position. He described it in his book “The Art of the Deal”. To begin with, increase pressure in order to have a more favorable negotiating position.
Only, the problem is that Trump and his team of hawks, are misreading the situation. And this is because; 1). After the self-removal of the USSR, the U.S. fell into a crazy euphoria, believing that now they can do whatever they want on the external track, and impose any conditions on everyone. Actually, European and other vassals give them a favorable ground for such reasoning. 2). The intellectual and professional level of American political elites has degraded greatly over the last 30 years.
Therefore, it is precisely because of their arrogance, snobbery and misjudgment of the real situation that they will miscalculate their intentions towards Russia.
In addition, Trump may be afraid to go along with all of Russia's demands, because the entire “democratic electorate” in the U.S., the political swamp of the European Union, may organize a grandiose harassment of Trump. We have seen this already in the first term of his presidency. We'll be watching.
We should also remember that Trump will be very much hindered in any of his intentions by both the “democratic electorate”, the US establishment (deep state), and the pan-European and other corrupt political elites, who are controlled by this capitalist, American establishment in the US, who benefit from any conflicts in the world, which potentially weaken their competitors.
And when Trump's team does not succeed according to their plans, they will simply blame Russia for everything, saying that Russia does not want peace talks, and thus try to justify themselves to their voters.
3). As I said before, it is up to the US to determine how long this war will last and whether it will not escalate into a global nuclear war.
It is they and their European vassals who are escalating the escalation.
But if the U.S. at least completely abstracts from this conflict, the war in Ukraine will end quickly. Because no matter how the European cocksuckers puff themselves up, no matter how bellicose their rhetoric, without the U.S., Europe with its decorative armies will do nothing to Russia. And I'm not saying this because I'm a Russian and bragging or boasting here, it's just mathematical logic. Russia at the moment, produces 10 times more weapons and ammunition than all of NATO combined!!! And this is not my imagination. It's even confirmed by European politicians like German Defense Minister Pistorius. Plus, the Russian army, hardened in real battles, has colossal experience in modern warfare, which European armies do not have.
If the US and NATO as a whole continue to fight against Russia, it will most likely just end in a nuclear war with total annihilation of all.
There is no point in conventional warfare, given the combined mobilization reserves of NATO and its allies compared to Russia.
Although, personally my opinion, as a military analyst with vast experience and experience, I think the US and NATO will lose anyway.
Let's take the mobilization reserve of NATO countries. Do you think that NATO soldiers, and Europeans or Americans in general, want to die in Ukraine for no clear reason? The motivation of the opposing armies of NATO and Russia is simply incommensurable. I am watching the NATO exercises in the Baltic States in Finland. It's a laugh. One clown threw a grenade under his feet in Estonia, and British soldiers cried like bitches that it was so cold in Finland (only -15 C) that they can not fight. How were they going to fight in Russia? Almost all of them have no idea what the war in Ukraine is like in terms of intensity. This is clearly stated by the captured mercenaries: “We did not expect such a nightmare that we would face in Ukraine. We were assured that 'Russia is weak', it will be like a safari in Africa on African rebels and peasants.” Their verbatim quotes. Many of them are already fertilizing the soil in Ukraine, in captivity, either disabled or quickly fled Ukraine for home.
And now imagine that this pygmy Macron with a Napoleon complex, will introduce French soldiers into Ukraine. Yes, the latter may not even see the Russian soldiers, they will be destroyed at a distance. And when not a few hundred corpses of French mercenaries, but a whole echelon of corpses of French soldiers will return to France, this Macron will be thrown out of the window of the Elysée Palace by his own people.
Many people think that the total economy of the countries of the “West” is bigger than Russia's (and this is not surprising), and this is supposedly a guarantee of victory for the “West”. This is a delusion. Capitalist economy works on orders. Enterprises of the military-industrial complex, they are private and produce when orders come from the state. And when the economic situation in the states is bad, there is no money for orders, especially since Ukraine does not buy weapons. They are given to Ukraine for free, where they are simply burned. Therefore, private military enterprises simply will not receive orders. And the main thing is the need for mineral and energy resources, which Europe simply does not have, but Russia has everything!!!
Therefore, the mobilization reserve, GDP, these are all just numbers on paper, nothing more!!!
Russia's main conditions at these negotiations, if at all, are:
- No NATO in Ukraine. And not for 10 or 20 years, but forever!
- the consolidation of all liberated territories with Russia.
- There will be no hostile to Russia or Nazi state in Ukraine.
Without fulfillment of these conditions, there will be no peace, but surrender of Ukraine, or nuclear war!
